Researchers and analysts, after going through their Data models, maintain bearish bias into the US November Elections.
As far as risk flows are concerned.
There are three possible scenarios that one shall be aware of.
(a) Democrats gain control.
(b) Re-Election of President Trump.
(c) USD Ultimate Safe-heaven in Second Wave?
Now lets discuss the above scenarios one by one.
- Democrats gain control:
If the Presidency and congress is taken under control by democrats after November Elections, then USD shall remain vulnerable to the risks such as:
(a) Low growth outlook in Covid-19 pandemic.
(b) Less business friendly policies.
What happen next?
Fed will have to adopt more dovish stance and can opt yield curve control.
As a result, Investors may find Gold & EURO shiny to invest in.
- Re-Election of President Trump:
Now lets see that what happens if President Trump is re-elected.
OR in simple words a status quo is opted.
If President Trump is re-elected then we can see some further expansions in the fiscal stimulus.
Besides this, the most important stance always opted by him is aggressive protectionism.
This has always been positive for the Dollar and can expect to be in the future as well.
- Ultimate Safe-heaven?
If we see
(a) Pandemic (Global Second Wave).
(b) Geo political risks.
If the above risks are materialized then we may see US Dollar as an ultimate Safe-heaven.
The above three scenarios are the all possible outcomes that can be seen amid US-Elections and Geo political tensions. Don’t for get the Second Wave is just above the head.
Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”