GBPUSD Important Weekly Supply Line (18-08-2020) (English)

We see massive weekly descending Trend line 1st top in April 2018, 2nd in December 2019. Now we have the latest test of the level.

Before we try to go long in GBPUSD we probably want Dollar Index to break below close below 92.50 level to ensure weakness in Dollar.

Keep in mind that there may be many stops placed on the trend line.


Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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Fundamentals to focus this Week (18-08-2020)(English)

Very lite Calendar this week but a far as banks & fundamentals are concerned. We have the below important events.

  • FOMC Minutes.
  • Flash PMI Data.
    As we see that the events are mainly focused on USD so let’s focus on the most demanding Pair EURUSD.
    As seen that EURUSD has gained more than 10% over the few months, and now its forming a top at 1.1900s. This bullish movement was the optimistic news of EURO and Pressure on USD as seen in the fundamentals earlier.
    EURO gained its strength by the optimistic news of Recovery Fund and PEPP.
  • Recovery Fund 1.3 Trillion.
  • Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program.
    On the other hand, What do we have in USD?
  • Unlimited Fiscal Stimulus.
  • Increasing Virus Cases.
  • Fed willing for more Easing.
    Hence,It was a perfect combination of Fundamental strength Vs Weakness.
    Then on Friday we may see Markit Flash PMI,Keep in mind that it represents overall view of business sector but not the view of actual economic growth.


    Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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Fundamentals to focus this Week (18-08-2020)(Urdu)

یہ ہفتہ بہت Silent ہے لیکن Banks سے ہمیں یہ دو  Events دیکھنے کو ملیں گے.

  • .FOMC Minutes
  • .Flash PMI Data
    ہم دیکھ سکتے ہیں کہ یہ Event USD پر مشتمل ہے. اس لیے ہم سب سے زیادہ Trade کیے جانے والے Pair EU/USD پر Focus کریں گے.
    دیکھا جاسکتا ہے کہ EURUSD نے %10 سے زیادہ Gain over 10 months کیا اور اب یہ 1.1900s پر توپ بنائے ہوۓ ہے.
    یہ Bullish move کی وجہ Euro Optimistic News اور USD پر Pressure تھا اور یہ دونوں چیزیں پہلے ہی Fundamentals میں سامنے آچکی ہیں.
    EURO Strengthen ہوا کیونکہ EURO Recovery Fund کی News نے اسے کافی Support کیا اور PEPP کی News نے چار چاند لگائے.
  • .Recovery Fund 1.3 Trillion
  • .Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program
    اب USD کو دیکھیں تو ہمارے پاس یہ Fundamentals ہیں.
  • .Unlimited Fiscal Stimulus
  • .Increasing Virus Cases
  • .Fed Planning for more Easing
    اس لیے یہ Fundamental Strength بالمقابل Fundamental Weakness کی خوبصورت مثال ہے.
    اب Fed minutes اور PMI Data پر نظر ہے.
    یاد رہے کہ PMI Data صرف Business کے حالات بتاتا ہےOverall Economy کے نہیں. اس لیے اس کی Movement کافی Short term ہوگی.


    Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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All about Tuesday (18-08-2020) (English)

Main Focus is Dollar weakness today.
Further downside may resume further.
The main reason is doubt on economic recovery and Un-seateled fiscal stimulus.
US Commerce Department stated that further 38 Huawei affiliates among 21 countries are added to black list.
USD Could not amid tensions among US China Australia tensions.
What do we have in GFx10.
EURO Topped @ 1.1900
USDJPY Dropped to weekly lows 105xx.
AUD in range almost at the tops 0.72xx
And the RBA meeting bullish comments.
New Zealand had nore # of Corona cases found.
UK Spokesman said that Trade deal may be expected in September.
Negotiations will start from this week.
Crpto currencies and Gold on Bull Run.


Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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All about Tuesday (18-08-2020) (Urdu)

آج کا Focus ہے Dollar کی Weakness پر. مزید Downside دیکھی جاسکے گی. اس کی اہم وجہ ہے
Doubt on Economic Recovery اور سب سے بڑی بات Unseateled Stimulus .
US Commerce Department نے State کیا ہے کہ مزید 21 ممالک سے Huawei 38 کی Companies کو Black list کردیا گیا. الزام یہ ہے کہ یہ China کے لیے Spy کا کام سرانجام دے رہی تھیں.
USD اپنی Strength بحال نہیں کرسکا ان Political Tensions کی وجہ سے.
.US China Australia Tensions
اب GFx10 پر نظر ڈالیں تو ہمیں
.EURO Topped @ 1.1900
.USDJPY Dropped at weekly lows 105.xx
.AUD almost in Range at tops 0.72xx
(RBA meeting Bullish comments (No Reaction
New Zealand میں مزید Corona Cases 100 day کے وقفے کے بعد سامنے آرہے ہیں.
UK Spokesman نے بتایا ہے کہ September میں Trade Deal ہونے کی امید ہے اور اس پر Negotiations اس ہفتے شروع ہوں گے.
Gold & Crypto میں رات و رات Bullish Run دیکھنے میں آیا.


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Dollar Sentiment (18-08-2020) (Urdu)

آج Overall مارکیٹ Risk-Off میں ہے کیونکہ Dollar کے Fundamentals کافی Un-Supportive ہیں.
جیسے کہ پہلے بتایا گیا ہے کل USD Fundamentals کی وجہ سے Dollar کو Sell کیا گیا اور Dollar اپنے تمام دوسری Currencies کے مقابلے میں کمزور رہا.
:Reuters Comments
Reuters Comments کے مطابق Dollar نے اپنے بقایا Currencies کے مقابلے میں Fresh Lows بنائے ہیں.
اس کی 3 میجر وجوہات ہیں.

  • .No economic Data from the US
  • .Increasing Yields
  • .Demand flows into Safe-heaven

    Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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Dollar Sentiment (18-08-2020) (English)

Overall tone of market is Risk-Off as all the flows in Safe-heaven.
Yesterday,as explained in fundamentals.The focus was towards selling the USD and trading USD against its rivals.
Reuters commented that Dollar full to its Fresh lows against other currencies.
There were many reasons.

  • No economic data from the US.
  • Increasing Yields.
  • Demand flows into Safe-heaven.

    Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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Antipodeans Fundamental Update (17-08-2020)(English)

Antipodeans are known as commodity currencies. Here we will discuss all the fundamentals that for now  Govern the market.
Last Week we saw some signals from RBA Governor and RBNZ Central Bank  policy makers.
RBA: ” Need of Fiscal Support”
RBNZ: “Central Bank, possibility of Sub Zero rates”
Australian Dollar:
As we all know that Australia is in recession for the first time in 29 years. Even though on Friday AUD setteled with 0.42% gain, Reason was the optimistic comments from Governor Lowe.”Will do all that’s needed to be done to generate jobs and pull market out of the deepest recession ever.”
New Zealand Dollar:
NZDUSD was under pressure due to the bond rally caused by promise made by RBNZ  to extend bond purchases. The other issue discussed was sub zero rates.
NZD held its OCR @ 0.25% and decided to expand Large Scale Asset Purchase(LSAP).
Technical:
NZDUSD D1 Chart formed a Double Top and is in confluence with the fundamentals yet to be bearish the key level of previous Resistance and current support must be breached with a break below close below candle. The neck line sits at 0.6531.Price is below the Monthly Pivot and now stalls at R1 of Quarter Pivot. A major support level.
(NZDUSD)


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Fundamental Events of August (17-08-2020)(English)

Below is the breakdown of the Events occurred in August 2020.
As a Fundamental Trader. The Knowledge of Key Fundamental drivers is necessary.
Australian Dollar:
August 4th:
The first RBA meeting in August 2020, Reserve Bank of Australia left the policy unchanged and the main concern was the Corona Virus out break.
August 7th:
Quarterly Monetary Policy statement Stated that Cash rate wont be changed untill there is progress in employment & Inflation Targets.
Unemployment:
For 2020 Unemployment @ 10%
For 2021 Unemployment @ 8.5%
For 2022 Unemployment @ 7%
CPI:
For 2020 @ 1.25%
For 2021 @ 1%
For 2022 @ 1.5%
Canada:
August 7th:
As compared to Unemployment Rate of June 12.3%, the July Unemployment Rate saw a rate fall to 10.9% Outlook of CAD depends on Monetary Policy and Oil prices.
If Policy easing may pressure CAD and on the other hand the Policy tightening may strengthen CAD.
Swissie:
August 13th:
Focused towards the Corona Virus cases.
Spain Corona Virus count increased to 355K.
Italy Corona Virus count increased to 252K.
Germany Corona Virus count increased to 222K.
The primary driver of EURO is highly dependent on Corona Virus Out break.
EU agreement on recovery fund supported economic outlook.This agreement has to be passed and signed/approved by parliment and member States.
Most of EU States are lifting lock downs but Spain fears of Second Wave of Corona Virus.
GBP:
August 6th:
As expected, There was no change in monetary policy. NIRP& Further Stimulus are a possibility.
August 12th:
UK GDP Preliminary Q2 Estimates -20.4% q/q -21.7%y/y
Both Q1&Q2 shows contractions. We may assume that UK is in a recession. Corona Virus count increased  to 314K.
NZD:
OCR is Unchanged and sits at record low of 0.025%. The main announcements increase LSAP Program from NZD $ 60 billion to NZD $ 100 billion as well as signaled willingness to increase further easing and adopt NIRP.


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Fundamental Events of August (17-08-2020)

August 2020 میں اب تک ہونے والے Events کی تفصیل جانیے.
بطور Fundamental Trader ہمیں Fundamental drivers کا علم ہونا چاہیے.
:Australian Dollar
RBA کی پہلی Meeting RBA میں RBA نے اپنی Policy Unchanged رکھی اور ان کا سب سے زیادہ اہم Focus تھا Corona Virus پر.
:August 7th
Quarterly Monetary Policy میں State کیا گیا کہ Employment اور Inflation Targets کے بہتر ہونے تک Rates Unchanged  رہیں گے.
:Unemployment Banks Readings
%Unemployment 2020 @ 10
8.5% @ 2021 Unemployment
7% @ 2022 Unemployment
:CPI
1.25% @ 2020
1% @ 2021
1.5% @ 2022
:Canada
:August 7th
June کے Unemployment  Rate 12.3% کے مقابلے میں July Unemployment میں %10.9 تک کمی آئی. CAD Outlook کی بنیاد Oil Prices اور Monetary Policy پر ہے. اگر Policy Easing کی گئی تو یہ CAD پر Pressure ہوگا اور اگر Policy Tight کی گئی تو یہ CAD کی Strength کی وجہ بنے گا.
:Swissie
:August 13th
Swissie کا Main Focus صرف Corona Cases پر ہے.
.Spain Corona Cases increased to 355K
.Italy Corona Cases increased to 352K
.Germany Corona Cases increased to 222K

Euro Primary Driver ہے Corona Virus Out breaks
Recovery Fund Agreement نے EURO کو کافی Support کیا. اس Agreement کو Pass& Sign ہونا باقی ہے
Parliment & Member States سے. زیادہ تر States اب Lock down Lift کررہی ہیں لیکن Spain کو Second Wave کا ڈر ہے.
:GBP
:August 6th
جیساکہ Expected تھا. Monetary Policy میں کوئی Changes نہیں ہوئیں لیکن Signal دیاگیا کہ NIRP اور Further Stimulus کی Possibilities ہیں.
:August 12th
UK GDP Preliminary Q2 Estimates -20.4% q/q -21.7% y/y
دونوں Quarter اور Yearly میں Contraction ہوئی اور اب ہم کہ سکتے ہیں کہ UK Recession میں ہے. Virus Counts میں اضافہ کے بعد اب تعداد 314K ہے.
:NZD
OCR Unchanged رہا اور اب یہ Record Low 0.25% پر ہے. اہم Announcement تھی LSAP Program میں اضافہ جوکہ
NZD $ 60 bln سے NZD $ 100 bln تک ہوا. اس کے ساتھ مزید Signal دیا کہ Further Easing اور NIRP کو اپنایا جاسکتا ہے.


Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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