GBPUSD Important Weekly Supply Line (18-08-2020) (English)

We see massive weekly descending Trend line 1st top in April 2018, 2nd in December 2019. Now we have the latest test of the level.

Before we try to go long in GBPUSD we probably want Dollar Index to break below close below 92.50 level to ensure weakness in Dollar.

Keep in mind that there may be many stops placed on the trend line.


Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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Fundamentals to focus this Week (18-08-2020)(English)

Very lite Calendar this week but a far as banks & fundamentals are concerned. We have the below important events.

  • FOMC Minutes.
  • Flash PMI Data.
    As we see that the events are mainly focused on USD so let’s focus on the most demanding Pair EURUSD.
    As seen that EURUSD has gained more than 10% over the few months, and now its forming a top at 1.1900s. This bullish movement was the optimistic news of EURO and Pressure on USD as seen in the fundamentals earlier.
    EURO gained its strength by the optimistic news of Recovery Fund and PEPP.
  • Recovery Fund 1.3 Trillion.
  • Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program.
    On the other hand, What do we have in USD?
  • Unlimited Fiscal Stimulus.
  • Increasing Virus Cases.
  • Fed willing for more Easing.
    Hence,It was a perfect combination of Fundamental strength Vs Weakness.
    Then on Friday we may see Markit Flash PMI,Keep in mind that it represents overall view of business sector but not the view of actual economic growth.


    Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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All about Tuesday (18-08-2020) (English)

Main Focus is Dollar weakness today.
Further downside may resume further.
The main reason is doubt on economic recovery and Un-seateled fiscal stimulus.
US Commerce Department stated that further 38 Huawei affiliates among 21 countries are added to black list.
USD Could not amid tensions among US China Australia tensions.
What do we have in GFx10.
EURO Topped @ 1.1900
USDJPY Dropped to weekly lows 105xx.
AUD in range almost at the tops 0.72xx
And the RBA meeting bullish comments.
New Zealand had nore # of Corona cases found.
UK Spokesman said that Trade deal may be expected in September.
Negotiations will start from this week.
Crpto currencies and Gold on Bull Run.


Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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Dollar Sentiment (18-08-2020) (Urdu)

آج Overall مارکیٹ Risk-Off میں ہے کیونکہ Dollar کے Fundamentals کافی Un-Supportive ہیں.
جیسے کہ پہلے بتایا گیا ہے کل USD Fundamentals کی وجہ سے Dollar کو Sell کیا گیا اور Dollar اپنے تمام دوسری Currencies کے مقابلے میں کمزور رہا.
:Reuters Comments
Reuters Comments کے مطابق Dollar نے اپنے بقایا Currencies کے مقابلے میں Fresh Lows بنائے ہیں.
اس کی 3 میجر وجوہات ہیں.

  • .No economic Data from the US
  • .Increasing Yields
  • .Demand flows into Safe-heaven

    Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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Dollar Sentiment (18-08-2020) (English)

Overall tone of market is Risk-Off as all the flows in Safe-heaven.
Yesterday,as explained in fundamentals.The focus was towards selling the USD and trading USD against its rivals.
Reuters commented that Dollar full to its Fresh lows against other currencies.
There were many reasons.

  • No economic data from the US.
  • Increasing Yields.
  • Demand flows into Safe-heaven.

    Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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Antipodeans Fundamental Update (17-08-2020)(English)

Antipodeans are known as commodity currencies. Here we will discuss all the fundamentals that for now  Govern the market.
Last Week we saw some signals from RBA Governor and RBNZ Central Bank  policy makers.
RBA: ” Need of Fiscal Support”
RBNZ: “Central Bank, possibility of Sub Zero rates”
Australian Dollar:
As we all know that Australia is in recession for the first time in 29 years. Even though on Friday AUD setteled with 0.42% gain, Reason was the optimistic comments from Governor Lowe.”Will do all that’s needed to be done to generate jobs and pull market out of the deepest recession ever.”
New Zealand Dollar:
NZDUSD was under pressure due to the bond rally caused by promise made by RBNZ  to extend bond purchases. The other issue discussed was sub zero rates.
NZD held its OCR @ 0.25% and decided to expand Large Scale Asset Purchase(LSAP).
Technical:
NZDUSD D1 Chart formed a Double Top and is in confluence with the fundamentals yet to be bearish the key level of previous Resistance and current support must be breached with a break below close below candle. The neck line sits at 0.6531.Price is below the Monthly Pivot and now stalls at R1 of Quarter Pivot. A major support level.
(NZDUSD)


Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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Gold Fundamental Idea (17-08-2020)

Gold is driven now by the following two factors:

  1. Real Interest rates.
  2. Real yields.
    As we saw that Fed is Cutting interest Rates to the “O”, a big reduction in real yields has been seen.
    Besides that, the weakness in Dollar & Continuous quantitative easing by the Fed also one of the main reasons.
    The above-mentioned reasons provide a perfect environment for higher gold prices.
    In the post on Tuesday, there was the largest one day drop in Gold prices going back to 2013.
    The one day drop may be due to profit-taking by big players and a pause in the overstretched market. The Size of the drop was too big to flush small traders.
    Despite high volatility, the fundamentals remain focused to the upside.
    Technical:
    Price stalls at the Mid B.B, Res 2 Quarter and forms 4, H6 candles in Range. Hereby range back to back, To maintain a bullish bias a break above close above the Resistance 1975.05 level may be required.
    (Gold 6)
    Price Action:
    Commodity traders are a huge fan of Price Action.
    Having a brief view of the chart we see Commodity Such as Gold seems to respect the price action. Mother Bar,
    Inside Bar, Aka IB.
    28th July we saw an IB formed and as expected reached its 100% extension (High of August $ 2075).
    After that, we saw Distribution resulting in another IB that covered 200% extension.
    Now as the market is done with its IB pattern, its in indecision state. Thus it’s expected that fundamentals may ride the market.
    The important key level resistance is:
    $ 1995.05 – $ 2028.57
    (The 61% – 76% of Bearish impulse leg)
    (Gold 7)


    Source “TASK SOLUTIONS (PVT) LTD”

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